Night of the generals

PINOY KASI
Night of the generals

By Michael Tan
Inquirer
Last updated 00:25am (Mla time) 09/22/2006

Published on Page A13 of the September 22, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer

A FEW months back, Filipinos asked why Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo could not do a “Thaksin.” Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had just resigned, following massive public protests around allegations of corruption, and Filipinos were hoping Arroyo could do something similar.

Alas, Thaksin (in Thailand, first names are used rather than the surname) quickly turned around and resumed his post. There were a few more protest actions in Thailand but the political tensions eventually went into low simmer, just as they have in the Philippines.

So, the Thai coup Tuesday night came as a real surprise to the world. Perhaps, most aghast was Thaksin himself, who had confidently flown off to New York to address the UN General Assembly. When the tanks rolled into Bangkok, Thaksin quickly declared, long-distance, a state of emergency, but within a few hours it became clear he had been ousted. He has since flown into exile in England.

I don’t think that’s the last we’ll hear of Thaksin. In many ways, he was like our own President Joseph Estrada, popular with the masses with his dole-out programs. Unlike Estrada however, he was overseas when ousted, and therefore escaped arrest. A billionaire, he can easily make a political comeback in the future.

‘Thaksined’

Meantime, the Thais -- and the world -- wonder about Thailand’s future. Governments have reacted cautiously, mostly urging a peaceful resolution of problems and an early return to civilian rule.

My Thai friends are ambivalent. Many didn’t like Thaksin, but are nervous about the new military junta.

Here in the Philippines, people are no longer asking if Arroyo can do a Thaksin, but if Arroyo shouldn’t be “Thaksined,” the new Filipino-Thai verb ominously sounding like the Filipino word for betrayal.

I’ve always felt Thailand is our political twin. Like Filipinos, Thais are passionate about politics, constantly complaining about feudal and corrupt leaders.

Like the Philippines, Thailand has experienced many coups but the Thai military has been far more active in politics. It was a 1932 coup that forced Thailand to move from an absolute to constitutional monarchy. There have been 17 coups since then, and some of the military regimes that were established following the coups ended up as brutal dictatorships, which is why the Thais are nervous about this new junta.

The current coup leaders have formed a Democratic Reform Council, ruling through martial law. Foreign TV stations such as CNN have been temporarily blocked, and the Information Ministry has been vested the right to censor news. The junta is likely to dissolve the Thai constitution soon and then appoint a new prime minister. Elections have been promised before October 2007, which is a long way off, probably intended to buy time to neutralize Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai Party (reflecting Thaksin’s populism, his party name means Thai Love Thai).

But it’s possible this junta will be benign. The Democratic Reform Council is headed by General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, whom Bangkok Post has described as a “soldier’s soldier,” a professional who rose through the ranks to become chief of the army, without being tainted by any charges of corruption.

General Sonthi is a Muslim, the first ever to reach such a high position in the Thai armed forces. He was appointed by Thaksin, but was believed to be on his way out. He had been critical of Thaksin’s iron fist policies in fighting the Muslim insurgency in the south, and had instead called for a dialogue with Muslim leaders.

Born-again democrats

There are similarities and differences in the Filipino and Thai experiences with the military. We like to think we have a strong tradition of civilian governance but we forget that the first short-lived Filipino republic was headed by General Emilio Aguinaldo. The period after 1946 was marked by civilian supremacy, at least until President Ferdinand Marcos declared martial law. Marcos was a bit of a schizophrenic, shuttling between the roles of a civilian president and the commander in chief of the military, but his dictatorship did leave a much more powerful military.

Our military has slowly become more professional, but I wonder if we have generals who might have views -- and a clean background -- similar to those of General Sonthi. We could point to Marcos’ defense minister Juan Ponce Enrile and Fidel Ramos, whose decision to turn against Marcos in 1986 sparked off the Edsa revolt. “Born-again democrats,” is how these two are sometimes described.

Enrile has been senator several times but seems more keen on defending personal business interests than the nation’s fragile democracy. Ramos eventually became president and fears that he would revert to his martial law persona turned out to be unfounded. In the past two years, Ramos has tried to play the role of the elderly statesman, he has lost credibility because of his constant flip-flopping in relation to Arroyo.

I’m skeptical about the ones who have launched coup attempts against Arroyo -- their political views were never really clear and we’ve seen how some of them have since sold out. But I’m even more cynical about the ones who, for now at least, still support Arroyo. She has favored those like herself, disdainful of human rights and democratic processes. Even under her nominally civilian government, they’ve already been able to get away with repressive policies that we normally associate with martial law. If these hawks ever turned against her -- and this is still possible -- they would become even more ruthless, and plunge the country into total chaos.

Kings and bishops

We need to consider one sharp difference between Thai and Filipino politics -- this is the continuing presence of the Thai king. Although Thailand is a constitutional monarchy, the king continues to wield considerable power as a moral leader. The current king has been a master at dealing with the soldiers, to the point where coup leaders would not be able to hold their ground without getting an endorsement from the king.

It’s not surprising that the current junta has been endorsed by the king. An editorial in the Bangkok Post speculates that General Sonthi may have even led the coup because of his loyalty to the king. Thaksin’s initial resignation was believed to have followed a reprimand from the king; so when he returned to power, this was seen as a form of lèse majesté, gross disrespect for the king.

In some ways, our Catholic bishops played similar roles to the Thai king, potentially powerful as moral leaders. But we’ve seen how the bishops have played politics lately. If a military junta ever came to power, I seriously wonder if the bishops would be there to keep the military in check.

Arroyo “Thaksined”? It could turn out to be a long, bloody night of the generals. Thanks, but no thanks.